The battle for Government Houses in the 2019 elections has begun in earnest with the number of aspirants rising on a daily basis amid loads of promises. Thirty of the 36 States will be involved in the elections. In this first part of a series on the battles that lie ahead, Yusuf Alli, Tony Akowe, Abdulgafar Alabelewe (Kaduna), Adekunle Jimoh (Ilorin), Bisi Oladele (Ibadan), Okungbowa Aiwerie (Asaba), Yusuf Aminu Idegu (Jos), Adamu Suleiman (Sokoto) and Augustine Okezie (Katsina) examine the state of affairs in some of the affected states.
One of the unique features of 2019 polls is the governorship race in 30 of the 36 states of the federation. The number of aspirants is increasing by the day in the various political parties. The aspirants are never in short supply of reasons for aspiring to become governors-call to service, pressure from the people, ability to outperform the incumbents, need to rescue the people from poverty, among others.
Between 1999 and now, the current political dispensation has produced 144 governors, including those that are serving second terms and those who lost out in hi-wire political conspiracy, the worst being the Tsunami of 2003 which swept off the progressives from power during the administration of ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo.
It was only in 2015 that the progressives realigned with some conservatives in the country to make a coalition history and gain power at the centre for the first time in the country’s democratic journey.
The constitutional provisions on governorship seat
Sections 176 to 178 of the1999 Constitution provide for the office of a state governor thus: “There shall be for each State of the Federation a Governor. The governor of a state shall be the Chief Executive of that state.
“A person shall be qualified for election to the office of Governor of a State if (a) he is a citizen of Nigeria by birth; (b) he has attained the age of thirty-five years; (c) he is a member of a political party and is sponsored by that political party; and (d) he has been educated up to at least School Certificate level or its equivalent.
“An election to the office of Governor of a State shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
“An election to the office of Governor of a State shall be held on a date not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.
“Where in an election to the office of Governor of a State one of the two or more candidates nominated for the election is the only candidate after the close of nomination, by reason of the disqualification, withdrawal, incapacitation, disappearance or death of the other candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall extend the time for nomination.
“For the purpose of an election under this section a State shall be regarded as one constituency. Every person who is registered to vote at an election of a member of a legislative house shall be entitled to vote at an election to the office of Governor of a State.”
Current outlook
At present, the All Progressives Congress (APC) controls 21 states, followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which is in charge of 14 states (including Ekiti State, recently lost to APC in an election), while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) runs the affairs of only one state.
There will be no governorship election next year in six states, namely Edo, Ondo, Osun, Ekiti, Bayelsa, Anambra and Kogi states. The people of Osun will go to the polls on September 22 to elect a new governor to take over from Rauf Aregbesola of the APC.
Why the governorship battle is unique
The 2015 governorship polls reshaped the power equation at the state level with the massive defeat of the PDP, which had ruled for 16 years. The opposition party is now desperate to regain its lost glory and has adopted the merger/alliance strategy of the APC to pay the ruling party back in its own coin. Nigerians will have the opportunity to know whether or not the PDP’s latest option will work.
For any party to control the centre in Nigeria and make any meaningful impact on the masses, it needs to have a majority in the National Assembly and dominate the statutory National Economic Council where strategic decisions affecting the economy are usually taken. Both the PDP and APC administrations have so far enjoyed seamless and robust sessions at the NEC meetings in the past 19 years
Also, for the first time, APC will be facing a score card test before the electorate. The number of states the party is able to secure in 2019 will be a measure of the vote of confidence in it.
Gubernatorial tussle in each state often leads to the emergence of new power brokers and the fight for survival by godfathers.
The status of gubernatorial aspiration in states
KADUNA
No fewer than 16 aspirants across the various political parties have indicated interest in the Kaduna State governorship race, with the major opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) alone having 11 contenders for the party’s ticket. The aspirants cut across the three senatorial zones of the state as there is no written zoning agreement by any of the political parties.
The aspirants are: incumbent Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai (APC), immediate past governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero (PDP), Mohammed Sani Bello (PDP), Isha Ashiru Kudan (PDP), Suleiman Othman Hunkuyi (PDP), Shuaibu Idris Mikati (PDP), Sani Sidi (PDP), Jonathan Kish Adamu (PDP), Ja’afaru Sa’ad (PDP), Mohammed Kadade (PDP), Bello Kagarko (PDP), Ibrahim Dauda (PDP), Haruna Saed Kajuru (SDP), Weynet Sidi (SDP), Isaac Ango Makama (PRP) and Polycarp Gankon (APGA).
Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, the only APC aspirant so far, has not only the party structure in his hand, but also all the instrumentality of government at his disposal. He is clearly the candidate to beat. Rating: Strong (incumbency).
El-Rufai’s predecessor in office, Ramalan Yero of the PDP is a political godson of former Vice President Namadi Sambo. Yero came into political limelight through the former Vice President. Before his appointment as Commissioner for Finance by Sambo, Yero had worked in the former Vice President’s company, Nalada Nigeria Limited, as Chief Accountant. Little wonder he was Sambo’s natural choice as Deputy Governor to the late Patrick Yakowa who was sworn in as governor in May 2010 when his boss, Sambo was picked as Vice President.
The death of Yakowa on December 15, 2012 in a helicopter crash in Bayelsa State placed the governance of one of Nigeria’s most complex states in Yero’s hands. He was the candidate of the PDP in the 2015 elections, but was defeated by El-Rufai owing to what observers described as “his lackluster and clueless administration”.
He is said to have since fallen out with Sambo shortly before he left office as governor. He was arraigned alongside three others on September 26, 2015 by the EFCC at the Federal High Court sitting in Kaduna on a four count charge of money laundering. The case is billed to come up on September 26 for hearing.
He said his decision to join the 2019 governorship race was informed by the genuine concern of the people and the numerous calls he received, urging him to contest. He said governance since May 29, 2015 has been a series of half-hearted trials and errors, with disastrous consequences on the people.
“I believe that my humble track record of academic achievements and working experience in both the private and public sectors have earned me tremendous knowledge, skills and capacity to understand the multiple expectations of our people across the state,” he said. Rating: Uncertain.
Isah Ashiru hails from Kudan local government area of Kaduna State. He was elected into the State House of Assembly in 1999 to represent Kudan state constituency. He served for two terms before moving on to the House of Representatives where he also served for two terms representing Kudun/Makarfi federal constituency between 2007 and 2015.
In 2014, he left the PDP for the APC and contested the party’s governorship primaries with Governor El-Rufai and three others. He got 1379 votes to El-Rufai’s 1,965. He was appointed Chairman of the governing council of the University of Benin by the Buhari government.
He is generally seen as one of the major contenders for the PDP ticket and is believed to enjoy the support of prominent PDP stalwarts in the state. He is very close to ex-Governor Ahmed Makarfi and he is from the same local government as Suleiman Hunkuyi who also ditched the APC for the PDP. Rating: Strong.
Sani Sidi was a commissioner in the Mohammed Namadi Sambo government, serving in such ministries as Environment and Natural Resources, Works and Transport and Culture and Tourism from 2007 to 2010.
He was appointed Director General of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in 2010. Originally from Kagarko local government area in the Southern Senatorial District, many southern Kaduna people do not see him as one of them. He is perceived as a political godson of former Vice President Namadi Sambo. He was a special assistant to a former Finance Minister, Mrs.Nenadi Usman between 2003 and 2007. Many also believe that his tenure as the boss of NEMA was meant to prepare him for the governorship seat. He said his decision to run for the position was informed by his passion to rescue Kaduna from total collapse. Rating: Weak
Hunkuyi,a serving senator, was Director-General of Makarfi Campaign Organisation in 1999 and thereafter became Commissioner for Finance. He fell out with Makarfi in 2003 because of his decision to challenge Makarfi for the PDP ticket. He believes his former boss betrayed him by jettisoning an ‘agreement’ between them. He dumped the PDP for the then All Peoples Party (later All Nigeria People’s Party) on whose platform he contested the governorship election. He lost only to return the PDP to contest the 2007 primaries which he lost to Namadi Sambo. He contested the party’s ticket again in 2011, this time against Patrick Yakowa and lost.
He later switched to the APC and was elected Deputy National Organising Secretary. He defeated Senator Makarfi in the 2015 Senatorial election. He is one of the APC defectors, who returned to the PDP recently. He is seen as a grassroots politician and was a close ally of El-Rufai before they fell out and became bitter political rivals. In the heat of his stand-off with El-Rufai, the state government demolished his house for allegedly violating “land use laws”. Government claimed he converted the house to the secretariat of a faction of the APC. He has vowed to ensure that El-Rufai does not return in 2019.
For allegedly instigating the Senate to reject a $350 million World Bank loan sought by the Kaduna state, El-Rufai has also vowed to ensure that none of the three senators from the state returns to the senate on the platform of any party.
Hunkuyi was a teacher before he ventured into politics. He was Chairman of Kudan Local Government during the Babangida transition programme. He was also commissioner for finance during Makarfi’s first term as governor from 1999 to 2003. Rating: Strong.
Jonathan Adamu Kish is the only PDP governorship aspirant yet from Southern Kaduna. Like Ashiru, he was a member of the Kaduna State House of Assembly and hails from Kaura Local Government Area, same as the state deputy Governor, Arc. Barnabas Bala Bantex. He is one of the emerging political leaders in the zone. Kish served as Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice during the administration of the late governor Patrick Yakowa.
Kish said his desire to seek the governorship ticket stemmed from his desire to serve the people. His catchphrase is: “The people, my heart beats”. He said his approach to governance will be totally different with the people as his focus.
“Running for this position is not a decision you take just like that; it requires a lot of extensive consultations, which I have undertaken over the years,” he said.
Kish is confident that the PDP will return to power in Kaduna State in 2019 and has warned El-Rufai to start writing his handover notes.
“This government should start writing its hand over notes. They should prepare to leave, because the citizens of Kaduna State are not happy. We have never been this divided. The government doesn’t seem to have respect for anybody. I do not see how this government could get its mandate extended,” he said in an interview. Rating: Uncertain
Shuaibu Idris Mikati, who is from Birnin Gwari local government, was at a time General Manager in the Dangote Group. Mikati previously sought the governorship ticket in 2007 and 2011 and lost. He boasts of his vast experience in the private sector and wide contacts in the business and corporate world. He said he has ideas that will transform and that only a credible candidate could defeat the incumbent governor.
“I believe I have the goodwill to move Kaduna to greater heights. We should look deep down and see who PDP can present that will match the incumbent in terms of knowledge, intelligence, ability and performance,” Mikati said. Rating: Weak.
Dr. Mohammed Sani Bello served as Commissioner for Science and Technology in the state between 2007 and 2010. He was until recently Financial Controller at the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). His supporters credit him with standing by the PDP during its crisis period, especially after it lost power in 2015.
They claim he singlehandedly financed the party and made it the vibrant opposition that it is today. Bello promised that he will be the people’s servant, leading a people oriented administration, transparently run on the rule of law and fully accountable to the public.
In declaring his intention to contest the governorship seat, he vowed to “restore peaceful coexistence and provide adequate safety and effective security of lives and property, prioritise economic growth and development for all where everyone has equal access to jobs, regardless of sex, gender, religion, age or physical conditions, pursue increased community cohesion and civic identity through societal re -orientation programmes and representative participation in social, political and cultural spheres.” Rating: Weak
APC, PDP in wait-and-see game in Kwara
The APC and PDP are keeping their strategies for next year’s elections under wraps. It is particularly so in the PDP apparently on account of the recent gale of defections from the APC led by Senate President Bukola Saraki. For now, no one in PDP has indicated interest in the PDP for the governorship seat.
But the decision, if history is anything to go by, will be largely taken by Saraki whose family has handpicked every civilian governor of the state from Adamu Attah to Cornelius Adebayo, Shaaba Lafiagi, Muhammaed Lawal, Bukola Saraki and Abdulfatah Ahmed.
Battle for governorship seats heats up in States
