Ahead of the primaries for the 2019 general election, the parties are neck deep in permutations on who to elect as their presidential candidates. While it is taken for granted that President Muhammadu Buhari might enjoy the Right of First Refusal in the ruling All Progressives Congress(APC), the hot enclave is the main opposition group, the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) where 12 aspirants jostle for a presidential ticket. Our Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Yusuf Alli and Group Political Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu assess the chances of the PDP aspirants.
AFTER the hullabaloo over defections, the die is cast in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has to pick its presidential candidate in a matter of weeks. By the timetable of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the 2019 poll, all parties have to elect their presidential, governorship, National Assembly and State Assembly candidates between August 18 and October 7, 2018. The primaries for the FCT Area Council Elections will commence on September 4 and end on October 27, 2018.
The presidential primary election of the PDP will be highly instructive for the following reasons:
It will indicate if PDP really has learnt its lesson or could walk the talk after 16 years of abysmal failure in power; it will produce a main challenger to President Buhari. It is likely to determine whether or not the party can make any impact in 2019 poll.
.Nigerian voters will be able to tell if they have an alternative to Buhari. .The PDP primaries will be a beacon for measuring how keen and colourful the next presidential poll will be.
With its persistent vicious attacks on the administration of Buhari and recourse to merger or alliance talks with about 45 mushroom parties, the pressure is more on PDP than its arch-rival, the APC. For a party noted for money-politics than issues, the conduct of the primaries will make or mar its electoral fortunes.
So far, about 12 aspirants have emerged in the party for the presidential primaries. It is a motley crowd. The aspirants are ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar; Sen. Rabiu Kwankwaso; ex-Minister of Special Duties, Tanimu Kabiru Turaki; Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal; Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo; ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau; ex-Governor Sule Lamido; a former Interim National Chairman of PDP, Sen. Ahmed Makarfi; Governor Ayodele Fayose; ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa; Datti Baba Ahmed; and the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki whose body language has shown a serious desire for the office . Analysts believe that Saraki is pretentiously busy testing the waters. The visit of 45 political parties to him on Thursday in Abuja was much more than the solidarity visit.
THE TENDENCIES IN PDP WHICH WILL SHAPE THE PARTY’S PRIMARIES
About seven tendencies have been in the PDP in the last 20 years of its existence . There is the military cabal which formed/ joined the party . This cabal is represented by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, ex-Military President Ibrahim Babangida, ex-Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Theophillus Danjuma and ex-NSA Gen. Aliyu Gusau. There are also the surviving elements of G-34 used as a springboard to form the party but shoved aside later; the new generation of power brokers in the party revolving around the shadows of Governor Nyesom Wike who is now in control of the party’s structure; the present crop of PDP governors who control delegates to the primaries; the old brigade of governors under the leadership of Makarfi and ably supported by Lamido, ex-Governor Liyel Imoke and ex-Governor Gabriel Suswam among others; the anonymous captains of industry, bank executives, oil sector cabal who share the ideals of the PDP secretly and benefited tremendously through humongous patronage during its 16 years inglorious rule ; and now the defectors under the leadership of Saraki who has been branded as the national leader of PDP at a recent emergency National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party to the consternation of many dyed- in – the – wool faithful.
The incessant shuttles to ex-President Obasanjo in Abeokuta (whose ghost is still haunting PDP), the Hill Top mansion of Babangida in Minna, the T.Y. Danjuma haven in Lagos and the modest Asokoro residence of Gusau pointed to how much reverence the party leaders and members still accord the military cabal which joined the party and produced Obasanjo as the nation’s President in 1999. Virtually all presidential aspirants have turned the homes of these military heavyweights to consulting clinics. Also, barely a few hours after addressing a world press conference on Wednesday on the siege to the National Assembly, Saraki jetted out to Minna to meet with Babangida, which was a confirmation of the influence still being wielded by the ex-military leaders. These past leaders have been fingered in the looming coalition of forces against APC.
With the way the PDP governors installed the National Chairman of the party, Prince Uche Secondus, it is glaring that they will play a major role in the choice of the party’s presidential candidate. Apart from keeping faith with the mutual power agreement which brought Secondus to power, the governors control the party structure at state level and they also determine the voting pattern of delegates from their states. A member of the National Working Committee said: “The governors have been dictating the pace in the PDP since 2003. They are natural kingmakers and I don’t think 2019 will be different because most of the statutory delegates are either their appointees or loyalists.”
Notwithstanding these tendencies in the PDP, all the 12 aspirants have been traversing every corner of the country in order to seek the support of governors and delegates. But the big question is how will these tendencies play out in the choice of the party’s flag bearer ?
ATIKU ABUBAKAR
A former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar is the only veteran presidential aspirant among those seeking the mandate of PDP for 2019 poll. He has been in the race since 1992 and he has lost the battle at pre-primaries, primaries scheming, primaries and outright presidential election to the late Chief M.K.O Abiola (1992); ex-President Obasanjo (2003); ex-President Umaru Yar’Adua (2007) even while on clutches; ex-President Goodluck Jonathan (2011) despite being the candidate of the Northern Political Leaders Forum; and President Muhammadu Buhari (2015) where he came third in the APC presidential primaries in Lagos.
His political career has been topsy-turvy with most of the time emerging as a loser. For instance in 1989, Atiku had his baptism under his late mentor, Gen. Shehu Musa Yar’Adua when he emerged as the National Vice-Chairman of the Peoples Front of Nigeria(PFN) during the transition programme of the military regime of ex-President Ibrahim Babangida. Despite the fact that he secured a seat into the Constituent Assembly in 1989, the PFN was not registered by the military junta. He had no choice than to pitch tents with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which was one of the two parties registered by the military government.
In November 1991, he won the gubernatorial primaries of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) but he was disqualified by the then military government from participating in the elections. In 1992, he stepped down for Abiola to emerge as SDP candidate with a bargain to become the party’s Vice Presidential candidate but Amb. Babagana Kingibe was picked as Abiola’s running mate to the consternation of all party members. In December 1998, he won the governorship poll in Adamawa State but before he could be sworn in, Obasanjo nominated him as the nation’s Vice President, the highest post he has attained in his political career. Yet the romance between him and Obasanjo lasted only the first term in office as Atiku spent the second term in turbulence.
And for aspiring to be the nation’s President in 2019, Obasanjo has de-marketed Atiku again. About a week ago, the ex-President, who is one of those working in concert with PDP against President Buhari, said: “How can I be on the same side with Atiku? To do what? If I support Atiku for anything, God will not forgive me. If I do not know, yes. But once I know, Atiku can never enjoy my support…”
In terms of political leverage, vast network, sourcing for good hands and having a consistent solid structure, Atiku towers above other 11 aspirants in the PDP but his chances are still very slim unless the party will not factor Obasanjo into its permutations. And for Atiku, who will be 72 in November, this appears his last chance.
Notwithstanding, Atiku is very strong in Adamawa; Taraba; Bauchi; the Southeast states( Anambra, Enugu, Abia, Ebonyi, Imo) because of his long term relationship with the Igbo; and two or three South-south states like Akwa Ibom and Delta( because of lbori, his long time associate who is the godfather of Governor lfeanyi Okowa). When he contested in 2007 on the platform of the Action Congress (AC), he secured 2,637,848 compared to President Muhammadu Buhari’s 6,605,299 votes and late Yar’Adua’s 24,638,063 votes. But he secured more votes in Imo, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, and Osun than Buhari. Then, APC chieftain Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his associates worked for him as they were all in the ACN. Today, Tinubu and his men are solidly behind Buhari. In the PDP, some notable figures like Bode George, Aduke Maina may back him. But his biggest obstacle is the PDP governors club
RATING. One of the tendencies in the party is to his advantage . This is the big businessmen , the business moguls and oil cabal who related with him while he was Vice President. They may not be too relevant for now, this being a party affair, except they are able to prevail on the governors to let Atiku be. Nonetheless, the former VP is a resilient aspirant, a renowned strategist, a tough fighter with a deep pocket, and a bad loser. He might not work for the success of the PDP if he loses the primaries. Will he jump ship if he is not picked, particularly if the primary is seen to be manipulated ? Time will tell.
AMINU WAZIRI TAMBUWAL
The Governor of Sokoto State, Rt. Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, is taking a second shot at the presidential ticket having tried in vain in 2015 to get the APC ticket. Buoyed by a successful tenure as the Speaker of the House of Representatives between 2011 and 2015, Tambuwal felt the next stage of his political career is presidency. Born on January 10, 1966, Tambuwal is notorious for defecting from one party to another since 1999. He had cut his teeth in legislative engineering when he became a Personal Assistant on Legislative Affairs to a former Senate Leader, Sen. Abdullahi Wali between 1999 and 2000 . Wali was of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP). By 2003, he got elected into the House of Representatives on the ticket of the All Nigeria Peoples Party(ANPP) to represent Kebbe/Tambuwal Federal Constituency. But in 2007, he defected to the Democratic Peoples Party(DPP) but when the terrain was tough, he made a U-Turn to ANPP to regain his ticket for re-election. He later left ANPP in 2007 for PDP with his new found godfather, ex-Governor Aliyu Wammako. While as Speaker of the House of Representatives, he had one leg in the PDP and the other leg in the ACN. He worked assiduously against the PDP and then President Goodluck Jonathan just to please the ACN and retain his seat as the ACN was instrumental to his election as Speaker.
By October 28, 2014, Tambuwal was finally done with PDP when he joined a new coalition called the All Progressives Congress(APC). Again on August 1, 2018, he ditched APC by defecting to PDP. Some political pundits call him ” the doyen of defection.”Although some attribute his persistent defection to “political vision and smartness,” others rate him as being too “slippery” as a politician.
His latest move was attributed to his presidential ambition being oiled by his political soul mate, Governor Nyesom Wike who has pocketed PDP structure with the aid of other governors.
His greatest asset is legislative finesse which earned him many plum positions including being a Minority Leader, a Deputy Chief Whip and the ultimate prize of serving as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. His opponents believe that the allure of leading the House has made him overrate himself. They also contend that his tenure as governor has been less robust because the executive position is more tasking and demanding. A former member of his cabinet said: “He is brilliant but he is inexperienced when it comes to managing in an executive position. He hardly calls meeting of the State Executive Council.”
RATING : Other than relying on Wike, there is little his past experience can fetch him in winning the PDP ticket. Some PDP governors do not buy into Wike’s agenda of handing over the presidential ticket of the party to Tambuwal on a platter of gold.
The governor looks strong in Sokoto, Akwa lbom, Rivers, Zamfara, Edo( the Edo PDP chairman, Dan Orbih, will do Wike’s bidding any day ) . But if he gets the backing of all PDP governors, his aspiration will come to fruition and most of the states will vote for him.
TANIMU KABIRU TURAKI
A quiet and oratorical aspirant, Tanimu Kabiru Turaki(SAN), a former Minister of Special Duties and Inter-Governmental Affairs, appears to be the underdog and the favourite of the Third Force in the PDP, going by the composition of his directorate. His aspiration appeals to the die-hard of the loyalists of the kingmakers in the party. There are powerful forces from the camps of ex-Presidents Obasanjo, Babangida, Goodluck Jonathan and ex-VP Namadi Sambo managing his campaign. They include the Director-General of the TKT, ex-Governor Boni Haruna ; Deputy DG(North), ex-Military Governor, Col. Habibu Shuaibu ; Deputy DG ( South), ex-Minister Stephen Oru; Director, Media and Publicity, Mr Sola Atere; Director, Contact and Mobilization, Barr. Caleb Mftwang; Director, Women Affairs, Ugbechi Nwuche; Director, Youth, Stanley Nwabuisi; Deputy Director, Contact and Mobilization, Dr. Donald Emeka Nwachukwu; and Deputy Director, Media, Umar Sani.
No aspirant has toured the country like the man they call TKT. A Senior Advocate of Nigeria and Danmasanin Gwandu, Turaki has good grasp of all issues in the country and his vision is always clear at any function
Since he threw his hat into the ring, many Nigerians have been eager to know his political antecedents which his opponents have dismissed as unimpressive. Wikipedia captures his political trajectory as follows: “He was Secretary, Youth Wing, of National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in 1981.
2019 POLL: Who wears the cap in PDP?
