Following Tuesday’s defection of some All Progressives Congress (APC) lawmakers to some opposition political parties and the resultant intrigues, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu and Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, take a look at the state of the ruling party in all the states of the federation.
THE defection of 50 All Progressives Congress (APC) federal lawmakers to some of the opposition political parties on Tuesday has raised fears that the ruling party may need to re-strategise to retain its grip on power during the 2019 general elections.
Part of the fear is that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which lost most of the states in the three zones in the northern part of the country in 2015 general elections, benefitted greatly as most of the senators and House of Representative members were from the North. Out of the 14 senators that defected, only two are from the South. The two did not, however, defect to PDP but to ADC. The rest of the senators that defected are from the North.
Also, out of the 36 House of Representatives members that defected from APC, only six are from the South. The rest are from the North. Out of the six House of Representatives members from the South that defected, only two went to PDP. The remaining four moved to ADC.
The Nation investigation during the week, however, shows that the development notwithstanding, the three zones in the north and the Southwest zone remain APC strongholds.
In the remaining two zones from the South, the current state of APC is also very interesting as the party prepares for 2019. Although the South-south and the Southeast zones have been Peoples Democratic Party’s strongholds since 1999, it has been observed that APC has made significant inroads into many states in the two zones since 2015. Today, the party remains in control of states like Imo in the Southeast, under the leadership of Governor Rochas Okorocha, notwithstanding the current disagreements and Edo from the South-south, from where the National Chairman, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, hails.
The party is also considered very strong in Rivers State, where the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, hails from; Ebonyi State, from where the Minister of Science and Technology, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, hails from and Anambra State, from where the Minister of Labour, Dr. Chris Ngige, hails. The party has also made significant inroads into Abia State, with new high profile membership that includes former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu, among others.
The Nation investigation shows that if APC effectively resolves some outstanding issues arising mainly from the last ward, local government and state congresses, and other issues that have to do with 2019 tickets, which are threatening the unity of members and aspirants for various offices, the party would not only stand out as the leading opposition in most of the states in South-south and Southeast, but may win some states in this zones, in addition to Edo and Imo.
The intrigues in the states, however, differ and are mainly driven by local dynamics and political leaders interested in the control of their political interests. Explaining the likely effect of the development, Osita Okechukwu, the Director-General of Voice of Nigeria and APC chieftain told The Nation: “I believe Nigeria will be the real beneficiary of the political development. The zenith of democracy is to have strong political parties contesting elections. I agree that the defections may help to strengthen PDP but that does not mean that PDP will likely be in a position to defeat APC in 2019; not at all. As a lover of genuine democracy, I was worried that PDP became so weak and almost shrunk to a mere regional political party, found only in the South-south and the Southeast. If you love democracy, you too would have been worried over the likely effect of the party’s near demise. So, what happened may be good for our democracy, but you and I know that the defections are not enough reason for APC to be afraid; No!”
The current state of APC in the various states of the federation can be summarized thus:
Bauchi
Aside Speaker Yakubu Dogara of the House of Representatives, whose defection is seen as an occurrence in waiting, Senator Suleiman Nazif, representing Bauchi North, Senator Isa Misau of Bauchi Central and Hon. Salisu Zakari are the only three federal lawmakers from the state that are part of the ongoing defection saga. Many observers of the politics of the state are shocked that Dogara could not pull more than one of his colleagues along in the unfolding plot.
“It came as a disappointment to some supporters of the Speaker that he didn’t have an appreciable support among his colleagues from the state. Senator Nazif’s case is different. He has a running battle with the governor. This largely informed his pitching tent with the Speaker and his defection to the PDP. And for Senator Misau, his face off with the presidency and the Police are the likely reasons he felt uncomfortable within the ruling party and had to seek refuge elsewhere.
“Now it is obvious that those opposed to the governor and the party leadership are very few in number. The governor has succeeded in keeping the party together and those leaving the party are largely doing so for personal reasons and political survival, not really out of support for Speaker Dogara. That is why not many people are going with them from our party,” a party official said.
But an aide of the Speaker urged the APC in the state to face the reality of its diminishing support base. “A member of the Bauchi State House of Assembly representing Lere/Bula Constituency, Aminu Tukur, on Wednesday left the APC after complaining of injustices and nepotism. Also, you will recall that the only female lawmaker in Bauchi State House of Assembly, Maryam Bagel had dumped the APC for the Social Democratic Party some few days ago for almost the same reason.
“I am sure they will continue to say there is no problem in Bauchi and Dogara lacks support in the state until all the members of the party will leave one by one. The PDP is daily getting stronger in Bauchi but some failed leaders are busy fooling themselves that their party is the strongest in the state because they are in government. 2019 around the corner and we will all know the truth.
The Nation gathered that both Tukur and Bagel left the APC because of their inability to secure the party’s ticket for the senatorial by-election in Bauchi South holding next week. While Bagel has joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as its candidate, Tukur is said to be shopping for a political party that will field him as its candidate in the senatorial contest.
Lawal Yahaya Gumau, the member representing Toro Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, emerged the APC flagbearer for ?the August 11, 2018, Bauchi South Senatorial District bye-election, after the primaries conducted by the party, on Wednesday night, at the Multi-Purpose Indoor Sports hall, in Bauchi. The federal lawmaker got 847 votes against 776 votes obtained by Dr. Danjuma Adamu Dabo who came second.
Five other aspirants who participated in the APC primaries included Dr. Safiya I. Muhammad , Ahmad Shu’aibu, Muhammad Hassan Tilde, Kabir Tahir and Aminu Tukur. Party sources said Governor Abubakar did not support any of the aspirants as Gumau and nearly all those who contested with him are his political associates. Meanwhile, the governor has said the party in the state will continue to appeal to aggrieved members to bury the hatchet and work for the progress of both the party and the state.
Lagos
In Lagos State, the party is strong and united. According to reliable party sources, concerted effort was promptly made after the last congresses to heal all wounds and it paid off. Although a feeble attempt was made by a former Vice Chairman of the party, Fuad Oki and his group to foment crisis, their attempt was truncated by the lack of followership they suffered and still suffer.
Also, considering the fact that no APC federal lawmaker from the state defected to the PDP, it is safe to say the R-APC, if present in the state at all, is of no political significance. To further confirm that the PDP in Lagos did not benefit from the ongoing defections, in the wave of mass defection swooping through the National Assembly, the party lost its member in the lower chamber, Tony Nwulu, to the Unity Progressive Party (UPP), last Wednesday.
The lawmaker, who is the sponsor of the successful “Not Too Young To Run” bill, disclosed that his dumping the PDP is in line with the overwhelming yearning of his constituents who have lost interest in PDP. Sources in his camp, however, claimed majority of his supporters in Oshodi/Isolo Federal Constituency have joined the APC instead of following him to the UPP. Nwulu is not seeking reelection as he is eyeing the governorship seat of his native Imo State.
According to the Vice Chairman of the APC in the state, Kaoli Olusanya, “the Oki-led group is irrelevant. The APC in Lagos State is more formidable now than ever before. There is no rancour whatsoever as all our chieftains and elected public officials, both in the state and the national assemblies, are solidly united under the leadership of our National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.”
Ogun
Ogun State is another place where nothing may really change between the ruling APC and the opposition PDP in spite of last week’s mass defection of federal lawmakers. To start with, the only legislator from the state named in the list of defectors to the PDP, Senator Lanre Tejuoso, has not only denied joining the opposition party, he was also part of the group of pro-Buhari Senators who visited the President immediately after the defection saga.
The Senate President, Bukola Saraki, had named Tejuoso as one of the Senators who defected from the APC to the PDP. Reacting, the lawmaker, however, noted that he never joined the PDP even though he is out of the APC in Ogun State. In a tweet, Tejuoso wrote: “Dear friends, I hereby confirm that I have left the All Progressives Congress (APC). However, I am yet to align with any political party as consultations are still ongoing. All politics is local. I remain deeply rooted in Ogun State politics.
The Nation gathered that following talks with some party and presidency big-wigs, Tejuoso may have resolved to remain in the APC. Indications to this effect are very rife as some close associates of the lawmaker who have been identifying with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as part of alleged plans for Tejuoso to follow suit, are said to be withdrawing from the activities of the former President Olusegun Obasanjo-backed party gradually.
“Senator Tejuoso has made it very clear for all to understand that he is not aggrieved with either the President or the leadership of the ruling party. Like he said, all politics is local. His grievances are rooted in the way the party is administered here in Ogun State. As a peace loving politician, he had thought leaving the party is better than agitating from within. But where he is being assured of some interventions, it is understandable if he is tarrying awhile before deciding,” an associate said.
But the APC in Ogun State says not minding his attendance on Wednesday of a parley of 43 senators elected on the platform of the APC with President Muhammadu Buhari at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, Tejuoso remains a former member of the party. “We took careful note of his decision to leave the party, as contained in the letter read on the floor of the National Assembly and confirmed by the numerous statements and interviews he made in the media,” the party said.
Whichever way Tejuoso’s issue is resolved, either he leaves the party or he stays, it is unlikely that the opposition PDP will reap much from the situation ahead of the 2019 general election as the ruling party in the state appears unshaken by the ongoing developments. The expulsion of Senator Buruji Kashamu, the PDP legislator representing Ogun East Senatorial District in the National Assembly is another big minus for the opposition party in the state.
Sokoto
The situation in Sokoto State APC today as we speak is that of uncertainty. The state had lost two Senators and four of its House of Representatives members to the PDP last week. The development has further confirmed the supremacy battle between Governor Aminu Tambuwal and his erstwhile political godfather and predecessor, Senator Aliyu Wamakko.
The two Senators and the Reps members who dumped APC and crossed over to the PDP were all political allies and disciples of the former governor until recently when they took sides in the rift between Tambuwal and his predecessor. Their defection last week, PDP says, may have weakened the base of the APC in Sokoto as the party now has only one Senator while PDP boasts of two.
But analysts say it is too early for anyone to say Tambuwal and his people will strengthen the PDP enough for it to overrun the APC in the state. The state has eleven House of Representatives members. Only four defected to the PDP, leaving Wamakko and the APC with seven. A source within Wamakko political family told The Nation that it was not easy for the governor to get the four lawmakers to defect to the PDP.
“Apart from the two Senators who have personal issues with our leader, all others who defected to the PDP on the request of the governor were lured with a lot of promises and freebies. If this is truly a test of the governor’s popularity within APC, then he can see for himself that he is unpopular. Majority of our party chieftains and members are with Senator Wammako and the leadership of the party,” he said.
The Nation also gathered that a fierce political battle is currently ongoing between the two camps over the House of Assembly. Our sources revealed that Governor Tambuwal actually planned to dump the APC for the PDP last Thursday but had to shelve the plan when it was discovered that majority of the state lawmakers had reneged on their agreement to go with him.
“The battle now is in the House of Assembly. The two camps are struggling to win the legislators to their side. For Tambuwal, it is a must-win battle as he is ready to move over to the PDP anytime from now. But he is disturbed by the hide and seek game some of the Assembly members started since they met with the APC leadership in the state on Wednesday. On the other side, Wamakko needs to retain the support of the majority in the Assembly to prove that he is still the defacto political leader in the state,” he said.
And if feelers from the camps are anything to go by, Tambuwal will defect to the opposition party, very soon. ‘The new plan now is for him to announce his defection imminently. The Nation learnt that to keep his alleged presidential ambition afloat, the governor has been told by chieftains of the PDP that he must join the party early enough for him to be granted a waiver along with other defectors.
2019: State of APC (1)
