Last year, the agitation for restructuring and the threat of secession dominated public discourse. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the issues and events that will shape Nigeria’s politics this year.
The political events of last year will linger in the memories of Nigerians. It was a year that economic recession, the agitation for restructuring and President Muhammadu Buhari’s health took the centre stage in public debate. Against the background of the secessionist move by some elements in the Southeast, many had thought that the country will disintegrate. But, the country has remained intact. Despite the economic recession caused by the fall in oil price in the international market and the mismanagement of the oil wind fall in the past, Nigeria was able to get out from the quagmire.
Given the number of events lined up, this year promises to be full of political activities. Being the year that precedes the 2019 general elections, full electioneering campaigns will start and they may overshadow governance. Some of the events are: Ekiti and Osun governorship elections, the All Progressives Congress (APC) convention, conclusion of the constitution amendment bid, restructuring, post-convention litigation in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), federal cabinet reshuffle, presidential primaries, budget passage, new parties, Anambra Central senatorial election, the anti-corruption fight, anti terrorist battle and Saraki’s Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) re-trial.
Governorship elections
The governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun states will hold this year. Already, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed July 14 for the election in Ekiti State. The Ekiti people will elect a new governor to replace Mr Ayo Fayose, whose tenure will expire in October.
The election will be a straight fight between the ruling PDP and the APC. In 2014, Fayose defeated Governor Kayode Fayemi of the APC. He won in all the local governments.
The 2018 poll will provide Fayose the opportunity to prove that his landslide victory of 2014 was not a fluke; that his popularity among the people won the election for him. Can Fayose who rode to power on the crest of federal might under former President Goodluck Jonathan win the election for his anointed candidate? Can he count on the support of the civil servants, especially the teachers that are owed arrears of salaries?
INEC has fixed April 5 for the commencement of the Ekiti governorship election campaign. Fayose believes his performance, especially the provision of infrastructural facilities like roads and bridges across the state and stomach infrastructure, would endear the PDP to Ekiti people and that they will not hesitate to return the party back to power. Contrary to the time table released by INEC, which stipulates that primaries for the election will hold between April 15 and May 14, Fayose had anointed his deputy, Prof. Kolapo Olusola, as the PDP candidate; a decision that has been challenged by other PDP leaders, including Senator Abiodun Olujimi and Prince Dayo Adeyeye, who are also eyeing the PDP ticket. However, the PDP national secretariat has overruled Fayose’s choice, saying the party’s governorship candidate will emerge from the primary.
But, a stalwart of the APC, Chief Babatunde Fagbemi, has ruled out PDP’s victory in the poll. He said it is wishful thinking for Fayose and the PDP to expect victory in the July election. He said Fayose is a dictator who he does not believe in the separation of powers as he combines the functions of the legislature with that of the executive. Fagbemi added: “The people of Ekiti have not forgotten how the PDP controlled Federal Government in 2014 deployed huge sum of money and military personnel to rig election for Fayose. If Fayose and his co-travellers in the PDP are planning of another short cut to victory this time around, they will meet their waterloo at the poll.
“Fayose’s tenure in Ekiti is a monumental disaster; the PDP administration in the state personified by Fayose is the worst thing that has happened to Ekiti State. How many developmental projects did he execute? It has been contract inflation and shoddy jobs paid for by government. The state internally generated revenue (IGR) had dropped drastically from what Fayose inherited from Fayemi. All this will work against PDP in Ekiti State.
Analysts believe that the APC stands a better chance of winning, only if it is able to manage its primary in a transparent manner, given the number of aspirants jostling for the party’s ticket. Besides, they advise the party to handle post-primary complaints with care such that there would be no last minute defection by aggrieved aspirants.
On September 22, the people of Osun State will go to poll to elect a new governor that will succeed Governor Rauf Aregbesola, who is about to complete his second term in office. Analysts said Osun would have been a walk-over for the APC but for the problems it had in the selection of the senatorial candidate for Osun West. A public affairs commentator, Comrade Jimi Afolabi, said the failure of APC leaders to pander to the yearnings of the people by presenting a popular candidate robbed it of the senatorial seat.
Afolabi cautioned the leadership of the party to learn a lesson from the Osun West mistake. He said: “Now that many aspirants have sprung off from the APC, Aregbesola should create a level-playing field for them to test their popularity. Fielding a preferred candidate will be too costly for the party. There is no doubt that Aregbesola’s performance has made APC the party to beat in the state, but a popular candidate should emerge through due process.”
APC convention
The APC has failed to hold its biennial convention as stipulated in its constitution. The last time it held convention was in 2015 from where President Muhammadu Buhari emerged as APC presidential candidate for the last general elections. Party chieftains have advanced different reasons for this. Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State said that the party was broke. The party’s National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, attributed it to the absence of President Buhari, who spent three months in the United Kingdom for medical treatment. The President returned four months ago and his health has improved tremendously. There is no excuse for the APC not to hold its convention this year. As a ruling party, the APC should comply with the provision of its constitution.
Constitution amendment
The stage is set for the Houses of Assembly to exercise their powers on constitution amendment. The National Assembly have transmitted the adopted proposals to the various Houses of Assembly for consideration and concurrence. Any proposal that meets the approval of at least 24 Houses of Assembly will be processed and transmitted to the President for assent.
Issues that will shape politics in 2018
